U.S. Senate Elections
2026 Senate Election Forecast
A Senate control dashboard with an interactive map, year-tab race tables, candidate headshots, party logos, consensus ratings and market-style probabilities.
Interactive Map Projection
Click into the full map to assign seats and build a custom Senate control forecast.
National Senate Control Projection
Consensus forecast with the narrowest races marked in beige.
Each party trades as its own binary market, so these need not total 100%.
Senate Forecast Workspace
Choose a Senate election year. Each tab uses the same forecast table format.
2026 Senate Race Table
Filter by rating category. Probability shows the candidate or incumbent party's modeled edge.
| State | Photo | Candidate | Party | Since | Term | Consensus | Prediction market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA |  | Jon Ossoff |  Democratic | 2021 | 1 | Likely | 50% |
| GA |  | Mike Collins |  Republican | 2023 | 1 | Likely | 49% |
| ME |  | Susan Collins | Republican | 1997 | 5 | Toss-Up | 54% |
| NC |  | Roy Cooper | Democratic | 2017 | 2 | Lean | 56% |
| NC |  | Michael Whatley | Republican | 2024 | 1 | Lean | 44% |
| IA |  | Ashley Hinson | Republican | 2021 | 3 | Toss-Up | 53% |
| IA |  | Josh Turek | Democratic | 2023 | 1 | Toss-Up | 47% |
| MI | AE | Abdul El-Sayed | Democratic | 2027 | 1 | Toss-Up | 51% |
| MI |  | Mike Rogers | Republican | 2001 | 7 | Toss-Up | 48% |
| NH |  | Chris Pappas | Democratic | 2019 | 4 | Lean | 58% |
| NH |  | John E. Sununu | Republican | 2003 | 1 | Lean | 42% |
| OH | JH | Jon Husted | Republican | 2025 | 1 | Toss-Up | — |
| OH | SB | Sherrod Brown | Democratic | 2027 | 1 | Toss-Up | — |
| AK | DS | Dan Sullivan | Republican | 2015 | 3 | Toss-Up | — |
| AK | MP | Mary Peltola | Democratic | 2027 | 1 | Toss-Up | — |
| KS | RM | Roger Marshall | Republican | 2021 | 1 | Likely | — |
| KS | AH | Adam Hamilton | Democratic | 2027 | 1 | Likely | — |
Market Signal
Modeled probability bands for Senate control.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many seats are needed to control the Senate?
A party needs 51 seats for an outright Senate majority. A 50-50 Senate is controlled by the party of the Vice President.
How many Senate seats are up in 2026?
The 2026 cycle includes the regular Class 2 seats plus any special elections.
Can I change the Senate forecast?
Yes. Open the full interactive map and use the map controls to assign seats and build a custom path to Senate control.