U.S. Governor Elections 2026
2026 Governor Election Forecast
A political forecasting dashboard for the fight over state executive power, combining consensus ratings, modeled market probabilities and an editable interactive map.
Interactive Map Projection
Click into the full map to assign states and build a custom 2026 governor forecast.
National Governor Balance Projection
Consensus forecast with toss-up pressure marked in beige.
Governor Forecast Workspace
Choose a governor election year. Each tab uses the same forecast table format.
2026 Governor Race Table
Filter by rating category. Probability shows the incumbent party's modeled hold chance.
| State | Photo | Incumbent | Party | Since | Term | Consensus | Prediction market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK |  | Mike Dunleavy |  Republican | 2018 | 2 | Likely | 68% |
| AZ |  | Katie Hobbs |  Democratic | 2023 | 1 | Toss-Up | 51% |
| GA |  | Brian Kemp | Republican | 2019 | 2 | Lean | 56% |
| IA |  | Kim Reynolds | Republican | 2017 | 2 | Tilt | 53% |
| KS |  | Laura Kelly | Democratic | 2019 | 2 | Toss-Up | 50% |
| ME |  | Janet Mills | Democratic | 2019 | 2 | Lean | 57% |
| MI |  | Gretchen Whitmer | Democratic | 2019 | 2 | Toss-Up | 49% |
| MN |  | Tim Walz | Democratic | 2019 | 2 | Likely | 64% |
| NH |  | Kelly Ayotte | Republican | 2025 | 1 | Tilt | 54% |
Market Signal
Modeled probability bands for majority control.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many governorships are needed for a majority?
There are 50 state governorships, so 26 is a majority.
How many governor races are up in 2026?
Thirty-six states are scheduled to hold governor elections in 2026. The remaining governorships are holdovers already counted on the map.
How should I read the forecast table?
The table combines incumbent party, tenure, consensus rating and modeled market probability to show where the competitive 2026 governor map currently stands.
Can I share my governor forecast?
Yes. Open the full interactive map and use the Share button to generate a link or embed code.